Zero Risk Betting Strategy: A Premier League Example

The concept of a “zero-risk betting strategy” has gained traction in various gambling circles. The risk-free profits are appealing. However, the feasibility and reality of such strategies require a closer examination. Read our detailed analysis with an example of the match between Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur

Understanding the Concept

At its core, a zero-risk betting strategy aims to eliminate or significantly reduce the risk of losing money. This often involves strategies like arbitrage betting, matched betting, or exploiting promotional offers from bookmakers.

Arbitrage Betting

• Definition: Arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event with different bookmakers, exploiting variations in odds to guarantee a profit regardless of the event’s outcome.
• Execution: A bettor must carefully analyze odds across multiple bookmakers and quickly execute trades to capitalize on discrepancies before they are corrected
• Challenges: It is heavily reliant on the availability of free bets and may become less profitable once introductory offers have been utilized.

Example: Man City vs Tottenham Betting Odds

Let’s consider the upcoming match between Man City and Tottenham. Here’s how you might use arbitrage betting:

1. Identify the Best Odds: From the provided data, the odds for Man City to win are 33/100 at one bookmaker and 3/10 at another. The odds for a draw are 21/4, and for Tottenham to win are 9/1.
2. Calculate Arbitrage Opportunities: You would calculate the implied probability of each outcome based on these odds and look for discrepancies where the combined probability is less than 100%. This indicates an arbitrage opportunity.
3. Place Bets on All Outcomes: You would then place bets on all three outcomes (Man City win, draw, Tottenham win) across different bookmakers where the best odds are offered.
4. Guarantee Profit: Regardless of the match result, the disparity in odds ensures that the total payout from one of your bets exceeds the total amount wagered on all outcomes.

Calculating Arbitrage Opportunities

1. Converting Odds to Decimal Format:
   • For Man City (33/100), the decimal odds = (33 / 100) + 1
   • For a draw (21/4), the decimal odds = (21 / 4) + 1
   • For Tottenham (9/1), the decimal odds = (9 / 1) + 1
2. Calculate Implied Probability:
   • Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
   • Do this for each outcome (Man City win, draw, Tottenham win).
3. Sum the Implied Probabilities:
   • Total Combined Probability = Probability of Man City win + Probability of Draw + Probability of Tottenham win
4. Identifying Arbitrage Opportunity
   • If the Total Combined Probability is less than 1 (or 100%), it indicates an arbitrage opportunity.

Example Calculation:

1. Decimal Odds:
   • Man City: (33/100) + 1 = 1.33
   • Draw: (21/4) + 1 = 6.25
   • Tottenham: (9/1) + 1 = 10
2. Implied Probabilities:
   • Man City: 1 / 1.33 ≈ 0.75
   • Draw: 1 / 6.25 ≈ 0.16
   • Tottenham: 1 / 10 ≈ 0.10
3. Total Combined Probability:
   • ≈ 0.75 + 0.16 + 0.10 = 1.01
4. Arbitrage Opportunity:
   • If the total is less than 1, it’s an opportunity. In this case, it’s slightly over 1, indicating no arbitrage opportunity.

Risk Factors

While arbitrage betting is often touted as a “zero risk” strategy, there are potential risks:

• Odds Change Risk: Odds can change between the time you place your first bet and your last, potentially eroding the arbitrage opportunity.
• Human Error: Mistakes in calculation or bet placement can lead to losses.
• Account Limitations: Bookmakers may limit your account, reducing your ability to place bets at favorable odds.

Conclusion

Arbitrage betting, using the odds for the Man City vs Tottenham match as an example, can offer opportunities to make a profit with minimal risk. However, it requires careful planning, quick execution, and an understanding of the potential risks involved. As with any betting strategy, it’s important to approach with caution and informed understanding.

Matched Betting

• Definition: Matched betting uses free bets and incentives bookmakers offer to place bets on both outcomes of the same event.
• Execution: This strategy involves placing a bet with the bookmaker’s offer and then laying the same bet at a betting exchange, ensuring a no-loss situation.
• Challenges: It relies heavily on the availability of free bets and can become less viable once all introductory offers are exhausted.

Example: Matched Betting on Man City vs Tottenham

1. Find a Free Bet Offer:
   • Assume you have a free bet offer from a bookmaker, such as “Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets”.
2. Place a ‘Qualifying’ Bet:
   • To qualify for the free bet, you first need to place a bet with your own money. For instance, you might bet £10 on Man City to win at odds of 33/100.
3. Lay the Bet at a Betting Exchange:
   • To mitigate the risk of your qualifying bet, you lay the same bet at a betting exchange. Laying a bet means you bet against Man City winning. The odds at the exchange might be slightly different, so you calculate the amount you need to lay to minimize losses.
4. Use the Free Bet:
   • After your qualifying bet, you receive the £30 free bet. You then repeat the process: place a bet using the free bet (for example, on Tottenham to win) and lay the same bet at the exchange.
5. Guarantee a Profit:
   • Regardless of the match’s outcome, the combination of the free bet and the lay bet ensures you make a profit. This is because one of your bets will win, and since the free bet wasn’t your money, you’re effectively winning money without risk.

Practical Considerations

• Betting Exchange Fees: Betting exchanges usually charge a commission on winnings, which should be factored into your calculations.
• Minimum Odds Requirements: Some free bets have minimum odds requirements. Make sure your bets meet these criteria.
• Risk of Human Error: Miscalculating stakes or laying the wrong bet can lead to losses.
• Account Limitations: Bookmakers may limit or close accounts if they suspect matched betting.

Conclusion

Matched betting can be a viable way to make a profit from the free bet offers provided by bookmakers. The key is to carefully place bets and their corresponding lays to ensure profits regardless of the outcome. While it requires careful planning and attention to detail, matched betting can be a low-risk way to benefit from the various incentives offered by the betting industry.