NBA Finals 2023: Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction and Odds

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction and Odds: The Denver Nuggets are predicted to win as per the latest odds and predictions.

The Denver Nuggets will aim to extend their lead when they meet the Miami Heat in Game 4 of the NBA Finals at FTX Arena. With an away win against the Heat in the last game, the Nuggets have a clear upper hand. Michael Malone’s men are just two steps away from a historic title that would be the first-ever NBA glory for Denver.

The Miami Heat should have capitalized on the momentum after securing an important win in Game 2. But a home defeat against the Nuggets has made things difficult for them. The Heat must find some way to bounce back in Game 4 to avoid a do-or-die clash in Denver’s home.

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction: Game 3 Summary

Triple-doubles from both Jokic and Murray became a nightmare for the Miami Heat in front of their home crowd. They recorded their name in the history books by becoming the first teammates to achieve the feat in the NBA Finals. The Nuggets registered a huge win after missing out on the last fixture. The Nuggets once again dominated the Heat right from the start and took an early lead. Denver was ahead by 14 points going into the fourth quarter. The Heat have made some brilliant comebacks this season. But the Nuggets were well-prepared this time. The Heat managed to reduce the lead to 9 points with 1:22 left. However, Denver took the ball possession in a crucial phase to extend the lead just before the end of the regulation time. They won the contest comfortably by a margin of 15 points in the end.

The Nuggets shot 51.2% from the field while restricting the Heat to just 37.0%. They also outscored Miami 60-34 in the paint.

Nikola Jokic played exceedingly well in yet another big game. He finished with 32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists. Jamal Murray gave a brilliant contribution of 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists.

Jimmy Butler tried hard to keep his side’s chances alive. He added 28 points and 4 assists. Bam Adebayo scored 22 points with 17 rebounds and 3 assists.

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction: Tactical Analysis

The Denver Nuggets are arguably the top attacking team this season. They have dominated the other teams with flawless shooting and good ball possession. Denver has an Offensive Rating (OFFERTG) of 119.3. They shoot really well as the Effective Field Goal% (EFG%) stands at 56%.

The Nuggets have done pretty well in the defense too. They play with a smart approach in restricting the offensive panel of the other teams with stealing and blocking. Denver’s Defensive Rating (DEFRTG) is currently at 111.4. They have maintained a Rebounding% (REB%) of 54%.

The Miami Heat looked inconsistent in the offense for most of the season. But they are well-known to bring out their best under pressure. The Heat have staged many epic comebacks with the help of effective rallies toward the end of the game. Miami’s Offensive Rating (OFFERTG) is kept at 115.2. They have a decent Effective Goal% (EFG%) of 54.0%.

The defense has been the strength of the Heat. They have their Defensive Rating (DEFRTG) at 112.3. Miami has rebounded with a Rebounding % (REB%) of 48.8%.

Key Players

Denver Nuggets: The lethal duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have led the Nuggets this season. Jokic is averaging 30.5 points per game in the playoffs, while Murray has an average of 27.4 points per game. Both players looked formidable in the defense as well.

Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler has been the star performer for the Miami Heat in the current season. He has an average of 27.3 points per game in the postseason. Bam Adebayo has done well too. He has kept his rebounding average at 9.7 per game.

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction: Home-Away Stats

The Miami Heat will be hosting this fixture. They are a good home side. In the regular season, the Heat won 27 out of 41 home fixtures. They are 6-3 at the FTX Arena in the postseason.

The Denver Nuggets have been decent in the away matchups as of now. They won 19 out of 41 away games in the regular season. In the playoffs, the Nuggets have an away record of 5-3 so far.

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction: Offense and Defense Comparison


Offensive Advantage: Denver Nuggets

  • The Denver Nuggets have kept their scoring rate of 114.8 points per game in the playoffs. They shot 49.4% from the field and 37.9% beyond the 3-point line. The free throw success rate is currently at 81.7%. Denver was the 5th highest-ranked side in the attack in the regular season. They had an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 116.9.
  • The Miami Heat have played the postseason with an average of 109.9 points per game. In shooting, they have a conversion rate of 46.4% in field goals, 38.8% in 3-pointers, and 80.9% in free throws. Miami was given a rank of 25 in the attack with an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 113.2.


Defensive Advantage: Parity

  • The Denver Nuggets are conceding 106.6 points per game this season. They allowed the opponents to play with a shooting accuracy of 46.3% in field goals and 34.9% in 3-pointers. The Nuggets played with an average of 5.6 rebounds and 4.6 blocks per game. The rebounding average stands at 37.9 per game. Denver was ranked 18 in the defenses having an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 114.2.
  • The Miami Heat have given away 107.4 points per game so far in the playoffs. They have an opposition shooting success rate of 46.4% in field goals and 32.5% in 3-pointers. The Heat maintained an average of 5.5 steals and 4.5 blocks per game. They have an average of 44.0 rebounds per game. With an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 113.4, Miami was ranked 8 in the defense.

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Odds

Although the home advantage will be on the side of the Miami Heat, the Denver Nuggets will be high on confidence after crushing the Heat in the last fixture. The Nuggets are likely to continue the same performance in this fixture too.


  • Denver Nuggets: -3.5 (-110)
  • Miami Heat: +3.5 (-110)


  • Denver Nuggets: -154
  • Miami Heat: +131

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NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction: Head-to-Head Stats

The ongoing championship series is the first meeting of these two teams in the NBA Playoffs. In the regular season, they locked horns 72 times. The Denver Nuggets are slightly ahead with 38 wins, while the Miami Heat were on the winning side in 34 fixtures.

The Miami Heat managed to win only 1 of the last 9 games against the Denver Nuggets. The current series scoreline stands at 2-1 in favor of the Nuggets. Denver registered a 109-94 win in that clash.

H2H Key Highlights: Game 3 Stats

Denver Nuggets

  • Field Goal%: 51.3%
  • 3-Point%: 27.8%
  • Total Rebounds: 58
  • Points in the Paint: 60
  • Fouls: 18

Miami Heat

  • Field Goal%: 37.0%
  • 3-Point%: 31.4%
  • Total Rebounds: 33
  • Points in the Paint: 34
  • Fouls: 22

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Prediction: Players to Watch Out

Denver Nuggets

  1. Nikola Jokic (Center): Points Per Game: 30.5 | Rebounds Per Game: 13.4 | Assists Per Game: 10.1
  2. Jamal Murray (Point Guard): Points Per Game: 27.4 | Assists Per Game: 6.8 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.7
  3. Michael Porter Jr. (Small Forward): Points Per Game: 13.3 | Rebounds Per Game: 8.1 | Assists Per Game: 1.6

Miami Heat

  1. Jimmy Butler (Small Forward): Points Per Game: 27.3 | Rebounds Per Game: 6.6 | Assists Per Game: 5.9
  2. Bam Adebayo (Center): Points Per Game: 17.7 | Rebounds Per Game: 9.7 | Assists Per Game: 3.9
  3. Gabe Vincent (Point Guard): Points Per Game: 13.6 | Assists Per Game: 3.7 | Steals Per Game: 0.9

NBA Finals 2023, Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Winner Prediction

  • Home Advantage: Heat
  • Momentum Advantage: Nuggets
  • Offensive Advantage: Nuggets
  • Defensive Advantage: Parity
  • Overall: Nuggets to win

The Denver Nuggets are likely to capitalize on the winning momentum and dominate the Heat in their home arena again. They will improve their chances of creating history by winning the NBA title to a great extent with a win in Game 4. On the other hand, the Miami Heat will aim for a solid comeback at home to remain strong in the championship series.

According to the odds and stats, the Denver Nuggets are expected to win this matchup.



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