NBA Finals 2023: Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction and Odds

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction and Odds: The Denver Nuggets are predicted to win as per the latest odds and predictions.

The Denver Nuggets will look to grab the lead again when they face the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. After two mouth-watering encounters in the home of the Nuggets, it’s time to move to the FTX Arena to decide which side will have the upper hand in the series. The Nuggets comfortably won the first fixture but they couldn’t repeat the same result in the last game which leveled the series. They can put Heat under pressure once again by defeating them in their first home game.

The Miami Heat have done a commendable job in the last matchup to level the series. Very few predicted them to bounce back after falling short in Game 1. But Spoelstra’s men are surely not going to surrender so easily. They have a bright chance to take an important in front of the home crowd when they host the Nuggets.

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction: Game 2 Summary

The Miami Heat have shown what they are known for in Game 2. They managed to level the series by crushing the Nuggets in their home against all the odds. It was definitely not easy as Nikola Jokic was the man who stood in their way. But the Heat got contributions from most of their key players which helped them register a famous win. The Nuggets were leading with 15 points by the end of the third quarter and they have not lost from such a strong position in the playoffs. However, Miami’s men were just not ready to give up They outscored Denver 17-5 in the initial phase of the fourth quarter. They kept dominating the hosts throughout the last few minutes to clinch a close 3-point victory in the end.

The Heat had a shooting accuracy of 48.6% in 3-pointer goals against 39.3% of the Nuggets. But they were outrebounded by Denver 38-31.

Gabe Vincent deserves all the praise for his brilliant effort. He scored 23 points for the Heat with 3 assists. Jimmy Butler gave a valuable contribution of 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 9 assists.

It was yet another monstrous effort by Nikola Jokic as he finished the game with 41 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists. Jamal Murray gave a contribution of 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists.

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction: Tactical Analysis

The Denver Nuggets have a powerful offense that has the potential to destroy any defensive panel. They always try to take an early lead with the help of effective shooting. The Nuggets have their Offensive Rating (OFFERTG) at 119.2 which looks pretty good. They have an Effective Goal % (EFG%) of 55.9%. Denver is the best offensive side in the playoffs.

The Nuggets are a strong team in the defense too. They hardly allow the opponents to stage longer rallies. Denver’s Defensive Rating (DEFRTG) is currently at 113.1. The Rebounding % (REB%) stands at 53.0%.

The Miami Heat haven’t been at their best in the attack but got the job done on multiple occasions. They always bring out their best in pressure games. The Heat know the art of comeback so well and it reflects in their offensive performance this season. Miami has an Offensive Rating (OFFERTG) of 114.7. In shooting, the Effective Goal % (EFG%) is currently at 49.7%.

Defensively, the Heat have been a mighty side from the start of this season. Their game of stealing and blocking frustrates the opponents. Miami has a Defensive Rating (DEFRTG) of 111.3 along with a Rebounding % (REB%) of 49.7%.

Key Players

Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic has been the spearhead for the Denver Nuggets this season. He looked flawless right from the start of the NBA 2022-23. In the postseason, he is playing with an average of 30.4 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. Jamal Murray is having a fantastic season too. His scoring average is currently at 27.0 points per game.

Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler has been excellent so far. He is playing in the playoffs with an average of 27.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Bam Adebayo has been good too. He has maintained an average of 17.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction: Home-Away Stats

The Miami Heat will be the hosts in Game 3. They have been good at FTX Arena, winning 27 out of 41 games in the regular season. In the playoffs, Miami is 6-2 at home as of now.

The Denver Nuggets have looked in the away matchups so far. In the regular season, they won 19 out of 41 away fixtures. The Nuggets have an away record of 4-3 in the playoffs.

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction: Offense and Defense Comparison


Offensive Advantage: Denver Nuggets

  • The Denver Nuggets have maintained a scoring average of 115.2 points per game in the postseason. In shooting, they have a success rate of 49.3% in field goals, 38.2% in 3-pointers, and 81.7% in free throws. The Nuggets were ranked 5th in the attack in the regular season having an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 116.9.
  • The Miami Heat have a scoring rate of 110.7 points per game in the playoff fixtures. They shot 46.95 from the field and 39.2% beyond the 3-point line. The free throw conversion rate stands at 81.0%. The Heat were rated 113.2 on the defense with an overall league rank of 25.


Defensive Advantage: Parity

  • The Denver Nuggets have conceded 107.4 points per game as of now. They played with a rebounding average of 38.2 per game. The average number of steals and the average number of rebounds are currently at 5.5 and 4.7 respectively. The Nuggets allowed the opponents to play with a shooting accuracy of 46.9% in field goals, and 35.1% in 3-pointers. In the regular season, Denver was ranked 18 in the defense with an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 114.2.
  • The Miami Heat are giving away 107.3 points per game in the playoffs. They maintained an average of 43.3 rebounds, with 5.7 steals and 4.5 blocks per game. The Heat restricted the opponents to a success rate of 46.2% from the field and 32.6% beyond the 3-point line.

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Odds

The Denver Nuggets have been a stronger side this season. But the home advantage is on the side of the Miami Heat. They are coming off a win as well. But the odds suggest a win for the Nuggets in Game 3.


  • Denver Nuggets: -2.5 (-110)
  • Miami Heat: +2.5 (-110)


  • Denver Nuggets: -182
  • Miami Heat: +155

Also Read: Man City vs Inter Prediction and Stats

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction: Head-to-Head Stats

This is the first playoff clash between these two teams. In the regular season, they met 72 times. The Denver Nuggets have the upper hand with 38 wins, while the Miami Heat managed to win 34 games.

The Miami Heat ended the 7-game winning streak of the Denver Nuggets against them with a win in Game 2 of the championship series. The Heat won that contest by 111-108.

H2H Key Highlights: Game 2 Stats

Denver Nuggets

  • Field Goal%: 52.0%
  • 3-Point%: 39.3%
  • Total Rebounds: 38
  • Points in the Paint: 48
  • Fouls: 21

Miami Heat

  • Field Goal%: 48.7%
  • 3-Point%: 48.6%
  • Total Rebounds: 31
  • Points in the Paint: 34
  • Fouls: 22

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Prediction: Players to Watch Out

Denver Nuggets

  1. Nikola Jokic (Center): Points Per Game: 30.4 | Rebounds Per Game: 12.9 | Assists Per Game: 10.1
  2. Jamal Murray (Point Guard): Points Per Game: 27.0 | Assists Per Game: 6.6 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.4
  3. Michael Porter Jr. (Small Forward): Points Per Game: 14.0 | Rebounds Per Game: 8.2 | Assists Per Game: 1.6

Miami Heat

  1. Jimmy Butler (Small Forward): Points Per Game: 27.3 | Rebounds Per Game: 6.8 | Assists Per Game: 5.9
  2. Bam Adebayo (Center): Points Per Game: 17.5 | Rebounds Per Game: 9.4 | Assists Per Game: 3.9
  3. Gabe Vincent (Point Guard): Points Per Game: 13.9 | Assists Per Game: 3.9 | Steals Per Game: 0.8

NBA Finals 2023, Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Winner Prediction

  • Home Advantage: Heat
  • Offensive Advantage: Nuggets
  • Defensive Advantage: Parity
  • Overall: Nuggets to win

The Denver Nuggets are likely to bounce back in the next game. They will aim to put the Heat under pressure right from the start. On the other hand, the Miami Heat seem to have cracked the formula to defeat the Nuggets. They will look to capitalize on the momentum and dominate the Nuggets in Game 3.

As per the odds and stats, the Denver Nuggets are expected to win this matchup.



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