Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Prediction and Odds

Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Prediction: The Milwaukee Bucks are predicted to win as per the latest odds and predictions.

The Milwaukee Bucks will look to level the series by securing a crucial win in Game 4 against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena. The Bucks are trailing by 1 game at the moment in the first-round playoffs of the Eastern Conference. They need to win away fixtures too in order to qualify for the next round.

The Miami Heat have the winning momentum on their side after winning the last home matchup against the Bucks. They can put more pressure on the opposition by extending their lead. The home advantage will also be on the side of the Heat.

Season Recap

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks looked in excellent touch from the start of the season. They fought hard with the Celtics to clinch the top position in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks had 58 wins and 24 defeats in the regular season. The solid defensive panel has been the reason for Milwaukee’s success this season. The Bucks faced a setback by losing the first home fixture of the playoffs to the Heat. They bounced back in the next game but fell short of the Heat again in Game 3.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the top performer for the Bucks once again. Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez also looked good.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat didn’t look at their best this season. They struggled their way through the regular season to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. In the Play-In, the Heat lost to the Atlanta Hawks and missed a chance to directly progress to the next round. However, they crushed the Chicago Bulls in the next matchup and confirmed their meeting with the Bucks. The Heat deserves a lot of praise for handing a home defeat to the Bucks and pushing them on the back foot in Game 1. They are currently leading the series by 2-1.

Jimmy Butler was the star performer for the Heat this season. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro were among the other key players.

Bucks vs Heat Odds

The game will be played in the home arena of the Miami Heat. But the Milwaukee Bucks are predicted to win.


  • Milwaukee Bucks: -6 (-108)
  • Miami Heat: +6 (+112)


  • Milwaukee Bucks: -255
  • Miami Heat: +215

Win Probability

  • Milwaukee Bucks: 51%
  • Miami Heat: 49%

Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Prediction: Home-Away Stats

The Miami Heat will be hosting Game 4. They have been good at FTX Arena, winning 27 out of 41 fixtures in the regular season. The Heat won 4 of the last 5 home games.

It will be an away contest for the Milwaukee Bucks. In the regular season, the Bucks had an away record of 26-15. They won 3 of the last 5 away games.

Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Prediction: Offense and Defense Comparison


Offensive Advantage: Milwaukee Bucks

  • The Milwaukee Bucks have maintained a scoring rate of 118.0 points per game in the postseason. They shot 49.5% from the field and 38.3% from the 3-point line. The free throw success rate stands at 73.8%. In the regular season, the Bucks were ranked 13 in the attack with an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 114.9.
  • The Miami Heat have played with an average of 124.3 points per game. In shooting, they have a conversion rate of 55.6% in field goals, 50.0% in 3-pointers, and 75.4% in free throws. Miami was given a rank of 25 in the attack having an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 113.2.


Defensive Advantage: Milwaukee Bucks

  • The Milwaukee Bucks have given away 124.3 points per game in the playoffs as of now. They played with an average of 40.0 rebounds per game. The average number of steals and the average number of rebounds per game are currently at 6.3 and 3.7 respectively. The Bucks were the 4th-best side in the defense with an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 111.5.
  • The Miami Heat have conceded 118.0 points per game so far. They maintained an average of 40.3 rebounds along with 9.7 steals and 2.3 blocks per game. With an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 113.4, Miami was ranked 8 in the defense.

Read: Clippers vs Suns Game 5 Prediction and Odds

Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Prediction: Last Game Analysis

The Miami Heat crushed the Milwaukee Bucks in a one-sided affair in Game 3. Injuries continued to trouble both teams. The absence of two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo due to bruised lower back was a significant disadvantage for the Bucks. Tyler Herro was also out with a broken right hand. The Heat went for a 19-0 spurt early in the first half amid making 12 3-pointers which was a franchise record. They were 13 points ahead by halftime. 

Miami continued to dominate Milwaukee in the next two quarters to secure a comfortable 22-point win in the end. The Heat outrebounded the Bucks 44-37. They also won 46-36 in the paint.

Jimmy Butler had an excellent game for Miami as he finished with 30 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. Duncan Robinson contributed 20 points off the bench along with 3 rebounds.

Khris Middleton led the scoring for the Bucks in the absence of Antetokounmpo. He scored 23 points with 5 rebounds and 6 assists. Jrue Holiday added 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists.

Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Prediction: Head-to-Head Stats

Both these teams have met 16 times in the NBA Playoffs. The Miami Heat have the upper hand with 10 wins, while the Milwaukee Bucks won 6 games.

The previous postseason clash took place in Round 1 of the Eastern Conference Playoffs in the year 2021. The Milwaukee Bucks secured a 4-0 win in that series.

In the regular season, these two teams played 126 games against each other. The Miami Heat are ahead with 75 wins, while the Milwaukee Bucks were on the winning side in 51 games.

Milwaukee and Miami won 2 games each among the 4 encounters in the regular season of the NBA 2022-23.

Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Prediction: Players to Watch Out

Milwaukee Bucks

  1. Khris Middleton (Small Forward): Points Per Game: 24.5 | Rebounds Per Game: 7.5 | Assists Per Game: 5.5
  2. Pat Connaughton (Shooting Guard): Points Per Game: 22.0 | Rebounds Per Game: 4.0 | Assists Per Game: 3.0
  3. Jrue Holiday (Point Guard): Points Per Game: 20.0 | Assists Per Game: 13.5 | Rebounds Per Game: 6.0

Miami Heat

  1. Jimmy Butler (Small Forward): Points Per Game: 30.0 | Assists Per Game: 6.0 | Rebounds Per Game: 4.3
  2. Bam Adebayo (Center): Points Per Game: 17.3 | Rebounds Per Game: 8.3 | Assists Per Game: 4.3
  3. Caleb Martin (Small Forward): Points Per Game: 14.0 | Rebounds Per Game: 5.0 | Steals Per Game: 1.0

Heat vs Bucks Game 4 Winner Prediction

  • Momentum Advantage: Heat
  • Home Advantage: Heat
  • Offensive Advantage: Bucks
  • Defensive Advantage: Bucks
  • Overall: Bucks to win

The Milwaukee Bucks can’t afford to lose another fixture if they want to stay strong in the series. They will hope for the fitness of Giannis Antetokounmpo. His injury is turning out to be a big trouble for the Bucks. On the other hand, the Miami Heat will aim to secure two back-to-back wins and put Milwaukee on the backfoot.

As per the odds via betting sites, the Milwaukee Bucks are expected to win this fixture.



Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.
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