England vs Italy Prediction: Statistical Analysis of Goals, Fouls and Winners

England vs Italy Prediction

When is Italy most likely to score a goal? Italy has dominated in the second half of the Nations League fixtures. 40% of their goals have come in the time frame of 75-90 minutes.

When is England most likely to score a goal? England has struggled at goal-scoring in the first leg of the tournament. Their only goal from the first four matches has come in the second half.

Who is most likely to score for Italy? Lorenzo Pellegrini has the highest probability to score for the Azzurri in the upcoming game.

Who is most likely to score for England? The English team will rely on their captain Harry Kane to score in the next match.

CrowdWisdom360 England vs Italy Prediction: Italy 1 England 1
All statistical analysis is based on historic performance. Player performance in the final may not necessarily replicate the recent performances.

It’s time for another round of excitement and craze among the football fans as the second leg of the UEFA Nations League is set to kickstart this month with many mouth-watering contests between the top international teams. Italy is set to host England on Friday, 23 September at the San Siro Stadium in Milan. The Italians will aim for a dominating performance after an average first leg with just 1 win from 4 matches.

It has been a nightmarish start to the Nations League for Gareth Southgate’s men as they are yet to register their first win. England couldn’t win at home when they last met the Azzurri in June and the match ended in a goalless draw. It will be a mighty challenge for them to start the second leg on a positive note.

England vs Italy Prediction: Goals Scored and Conceded


Time FrameGoals ScoredGoals Conceded
First 15 minutes01
16 to 30 minutes11
31 to 45 minutes12
46 to 60 minutes01
61 to 75 minutes14
76 to 90 minutes41
First Half24
Second Half56
Total (Last 5 Matches)510


Time FrameGoals ScoredGoals Conceded
First 15 minutes00
16 to 30 minutes11
31 to 45 minutes10
46 to 60 minutes01
61 to 75 minutes02
76 to 90 minutes22
First Half21
Second Half25
Total (Last 5 Matches)46

England vs Italy Prediction: Forwards Statistics

  • Matteo Pessina leads the forward attack for the Azzurri. Pessina had created 1 big chance in the current season of the Nations League. He also got a dribbling success of 54%. Matteo Politano is another key striker who has assisted in 1 goal, created 3 big chances for his side, and played at an average of 2.3 key passes per match.
  • England has a strong forward attack led by their captain, Harry Kane. Kane has looked in excellent touch in the EPL as he has already added 5 goals to his name for Tottenham and played at an average of 3.7 shots per game. He also added 1 goal in the UEFA Nations League. Phil Foden has scored 1 goal in the current League, playing at an average of 1.5 shots per match. Ivan Toney has also been called for the second leg as a reward of his performance in the EPL. Toney has added 5 goals and 2 assists as of now, playing for Brentford.
GoalsShots On Target Per Game
Matteo Pessina01.0
Matteo Politano01.0
Gianluca Scamacca00.3
Harry Kane 11.0
Phil Foden11.0
Jarrod Bowen00.5

Italy vs England Prediction: Yellow Card Statistics

  • Italy
Yellow Cards
Sandro Tonali2
Bryan Cristante1
Lorenzo Pellegrini1
  • England:
Yellow Cards
Kyle Walker1
Harry Magure1
Jack Grealish1

England vs Italy Prediction: Midfield Statistics

Passing AccuracyKey Passes Per Game
Lorenzo Pellegrini75%2.0
Manuel Locatelli83%0.0
Bryan Cristante83%0.3
James Ward-Prowse92%1.0
Jude Bellingham89%0.3
Declan Rice90%0.0

Lorenzo Pellegrini is one of the most highly skilled players of Italy. Pellegrini has scored 2 goals in the Nations League till now at a scoring frequency of 110 minutes. Manuel Locatelli is another important midfielder for Italy who has played at an average of 1.5 interceptions per match in the first leg with 89% success in the total duels.

England’s midfield panel comprises some star footballers like James Ward-Prowse and Jude Bellingham. Ward-Prose has been good in the Premier League so far with 1 goal and 1 assist for Southampton along with 67% dribbling success. Bellingham has maintained his interception average at 2 per game in the Nations League with 69% success in the ground duels.

England vs Italy Prediction: Defence Statistics

Clearances Per GameTackles Per Game
Federico Gatti4.00.0
Gianluca Mancini2.54.0
Francesco Acerbi2.01.5
Conor Coady3.01.0
Fikayo Tomori0.52.0
John Stones1.31.7

Federico Gatti and Gianluca Mancini are some of the leading defenders of the Italian side. Gatti has played at an average of 4 clearances per game in the Nations League as of now, winning 64% of the total duels. Mancini’s tackling average stands at 4 per game. He also won 78% of the aerial duels.

The English defence has players like Conor Coady and Fikayo Tomori. Coady has played the current league at an average of 3 clearances per match with 94% passing accuracy. Tomori has maintained an average of 2 tackles per game with 44% success in the ground duels.

England vs Italy Prediction: Goalkeeper Stats

Gianluigi Donnarumma (Italy)Aaron Ramsdale (England)
Saves per Game3.5 (78%)2.0 (50%)
Goals Conceded Per Game1.02.0
Clean Sheets01

Italy’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has been decent in the UEFA Nations League so far as he has played at an average of 3.7 saves per match with a 78% success rate.

Aaron Ramsdale is likely to take charge of the goalkeeping responsibility for England from the start of the second leg. Ramsdale has played 2 league matches so far at an average of 2 saves per match with a 50% success rate.

England vs Italy Prediction: Team Stats (All Competitions)

Goals per game2.372.63
Goals conceding per game0.580.54
Clean Sheets2426
Ball Possesion %61.22%61.00%

England vs Italy Prediction: Head-to-Head Statistics

Matches: 29 | Italy: 12 | Draw: 9 | England: 8

Recent 5 Meetings: Italy: 2 | Draw: 3 | England: 0

Last Meeting: The game ended in a 0-0 draw in the UEFA Nations League on 11 June 2022.

England vs Italy Prediction: Comparative Analysis

In the last five Home matches, Italy has:

  • Scored 0.8 goals per match.
  • No Clean sheet.
  • Conceded 1.4 goals per match.
  • Failed to score twice.

In the last five away matches, England has:

  • Scored 4 goals per match.
  • Two clean sheet.
  • Conceded 0.6 goals per match.
  • Failed to score once.

England vs Italy Prediction: Winning Odds


England vs Italy Prediction: Predicted XI

Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Spinazzola, Bastoni, Mancini, Calabria; Barella, Cristante, Frattesi; Gnonto, Raspadori, Politano

England (4-3-3): Ramsdale; Walker, Stones, Guehi, James; Gallagher, Phillips, Bellingham; Bowen, Kane, Saka

England vs Italy Prediction: Final Analysis and Prediction

Italy will surely look to dominate the visitors in front of the home fans and start the second leg with an emphatic win. The Italians have also dominated the English side in the recent past. England, on the other hand, needs to find the right team combination to trouble the Azzurri.

They are yet to avenge the loss in the UEFA Euro Cup Final against Italy last year. As per the predictions and betting platforms, Italy has a higher probability to win this fixture.

Also Read our EPL coverage here



Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.

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