Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction: Statistical Analysis

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction

Arsenal & Newcastle[Goals]

  • Arsenal is likely to score in the second half against Newcastle.
  • Newcastle is likely to score a goal in the first half against Arsenal

Arsenal & Newcastle Prediction [Goals]

  • Gabriel Martinelli is likely to score a goal against Newcastle.
  • Callum Wilson is likely to score a goal against Arsenal

Arsenal vs Newcastle score Prediction Score Arsenal: 2, Newcastle: 1

Statistical analysis is based on historic performance. Player performance in the match may not necessarily replicate recent performances

The league toppers Arsenal will go head-to-head with Newcastle at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal has been in red-hot form this season. The Gunners are 5 points ahead of rivals City.

Newcastle has also been on a roll as well. The Magpies are Lying third on the table just 7 behind the Gunners and it would be all to play for when these sides meet.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction: Goal Analysis


  • In the last five games, Arsenal has won 4 games while drawing only one game with a total goal aggregate of 10:1. Arsenal conceded its last goal against Southampton on 23-10-2022.
  • Arsenal is aggregating 15:5 in the last 5 home matches and the goal-scoring at home has been substantially better than in away fixtures. Arsenal has aggregated 8:1 in away fixtures.
  • Arsenal scores an average of 3 goals per match at home which is a lot better than their away performances where they scored an average of 1.6 goals per match.
  • Arsenal’s average 1st goal at home in the last 5 matches has come in the Second half around 50-52 minutes, while it conceded its 1st goal around 55-60 minutes.


  • Newcastle has not lost a single game in the last 5 matches and has a total goal aggregate of 12: 3.
  • When comparing analysis between home and away games, Newcastle has not lost a single game in the last 5 matches at home. The Magpies are aggregating 12:2 at home. The away record underperforms with 3 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw in the last 5 games. The away goal aggregate for the last 5 matches is 11: 5
  • There is not much difference in the goal-scoring form in away fixtures for the Magpies but the Magpies concede 0.60 goals more in the away fixtures.
  • Newcastle has been rampant at scoring in the away fixtures and has scored 1st in all the away games in the last 5 matches. Newcastle scored its 1st goal around the 42nd minute while conceded its 1st goal around the 76th minute

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction: Expected Goals Performance in the last five matches

Arsenal is averaging 1.7 expected goals per match and is not much difference between the actual goals and the expected goals. The differential between the two stats is just 0.3 goals. The statistics include data for the last 5 games.

  • Expected goals: Expected goals takes into account various parameter like shots, Shots on target, Shots conceded on target and Average shooting accuracy from the league.

Newcastle is averaging 1.6 expected goals per match with a differential of 0.6 goals per match which is high in terms of Statistics. The Stats also Includes data for the last 5 games.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction: Forward statistics


  • Gabriel Martinelli has played 14 games, taken 23 shots overall with 13 of them finding the target, and scored 5 goals. Gabriel Martinelli averages 28 passes per game, completes 86% of his passes, and has 2 assists.
  • Bukayo Saka has played 14 games, taken 20 shots overall with 9 of them finding the back of the net, and scored 4 goals. Saka averages 33 passes per game, completes them 84% of the time, and has 6 assists.


  • Miguel Almirón has played in 15 games. He has fired 22 shots in all, scoring 8 goals on 12 of those attempts. Miguel Almirón averages 31 passes per game, an 86% pass completion rate, and 1 assist per game.
  • Callum Wilson has participated in 10 games and have 24 total shots, 11 of which have been on goal, and 6 goals. Callum Wilson completes 9 passes on average (72% of the time) and assists twice each game.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction: Defence Analysis

Arsenal has been strong on defence this season. The league leaders are averaging 0.79 goals per match and have conceded 8.1 shots per match (4.1 shots fewer than the Premier League average). The Gunners concedes only 2.71 shots on target out of the 8.1 shots. Arsenal’s Goalkeeper has been above par as well with a save percentage of 71% (3 % Higher than the premier league average)

Newcastle defensively has been better than the Gunners, The Magpies have conceded only 0.79 goals per match and conceded 11.1 shots per match (1 shot fewer than the Premier League average). The Magpies concede 3.80 shots on target, but their goalkeeping is which stands out this season with a save percentage of 80%.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Statistics

Matches: 179 | Arsenal: 83 | Draw: 38 | Newcastle: 68

Last 5 matches: | Arsenal: 4 | Draw: | Newcastle: 1

Last Meeting: Newcastle defeated Arsenal 2-0 on 16 May 2022

This Fixture by the Numbers: Last Five games (total and Home)

  • Arsenal has conceded 2 goals in the last 5 matches against Newcastle and has 4 clean sheets.
  • Arsenal has not conceded any goals at the Emirates Stadium in the last 3 matches.
  • This fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per match in the last 5 matches out of which the Gunners have averaged 2.2 goals per match against Newcastle.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Odds


  • Arsenal: 1.8
  • Draw: 3.9
  • Newcastle: 4.5

Win Probability:

  • Arsenal: 53%
  • Draw: 26%
  • Newcastle: 21%

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction: Injuries

Gabriel Jesus had to have surgery earlier this month after suffering a major knee injury during Brazil’s World Cup loss to Cameroon. Although Arteta has declined to give a timetable for the striker’s recuperation, it is anticipated that he won’t be available for about three months.

After suffering a hamstring injury during the first half of last weekend’s loss to Juventus, Reiss Nelson left the game and will now need a few weeks to heal.

No Major Injury was reported in the Newcastle Squad

Arsenal vs Newcastle Score Prediction

Recently, Arsenal has experienced a plethora of injuries, and they are now playing without their star striker Gabriel Jesus. Newcastle has plenty of confidence thanks to their outstanding season. There isn’t much that separates the two teams when comparing their stats and form guides. In their last five games, Arsenal has won four of them. Magpies have improved with 5 victories in their previous 5 games.

We may use the home and away records to aid in our predictions. Arsenal has dominated at home, scoring an average of three goals per game, while Newcastle has somewhat underperformed in away games.

The Gunners also have an advantage in Head-to-Head. The Gunners has won 4 of the previous 5 games and hasn’t conceded much in recent encounters between the two sides. In the previous five games, Newcastle has only managed to score two goals.
Prediction: The match doesn’t appear to be as straightforward as prior Head-to-Head matches may suggest because Newcastle is currently playing excellent football and is predicted to give the Gunners a tough battle. However, even if we think the Gunners will prevail, we don’t anticipate a perfect game from them. Score Prediction: Arsenal: 2, Newcastle: 1



Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.

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